Ambiguity versus leadership

Ireland suffers from lack of authentic political leadership, writes Bill Hobbs

Bond markets are holding a mirror up to a brutal reality few in political life are prepared to admit to. It is a reality we sense and are reacting to. It is the absence of authentic political leadership that generates a sense of direction, inspires motivation, leads from the front by showing example and is accepted in the hearts and minds of people who are willing to follow.

Mumbled, garbled and incoherent radio interviews are potent symbols of a form of political leadership, called strategic ambiguity, which buys votes by selling messages that have a mass appeal. But by deliberately fudging policy intentions to appeal to the broadest electorate as possible, questioning of economic policy is muted. It is an ambiguity that permitted a looting of national wealth for the benefit of the few over the many.

Such ambiguous leadership will reach its nemesis next month, when the awful bill for looting national wealth is unveiled. Once this Government finally produces a believable figure on the cost of paying off rogue bankers’ debts it will lose all credibility in the hearts and minds of its electorate. Public retribution will rightly demand a change in leadership through a general election.

At one time international observers’ commentary on the success of the Celtic Tiger was used by political leadership to bolster its domestic home-grown soft landing story. The irony is these same international observers, having had their eyes opened to Irish bubble economics, are now being accused of exaggerating problems and misleading the bond markets by the same political leadership.

Bond investors are pragmatists who look to maximise gain while minimising risk. They price risk into what they are willing to pay to lend money to sovereign states. They judge the quality of political leadership and its ability to tackle national crisis. While we have a good repayment record, investors are concerned that this continues. They wonder if Irish political leadership can deliver once again on what’s needed to be done.

There is a difference between good leadership and successful leadership. Good leaders communicate good judgement with clarity. The better the judgement and clearer the communication the better the leader in the eyes of their followers. In politics while good leadership matters, successful leadership matters more.

Successful leaders know they should not be too clear – they hog the limelight to maximise support – so they dumb down the clarity introducing ambiguity to appeal to as wide an electorate as possible. Policy becomes less important as followers buy the message.

Such political ambiguity here, from a leadership that fudged, obfuscated, and compromised whilst all the while allowing looters free reign, came unstuck. The problem for politicians is they continued on message – we hear of “the cheapest banking bailout in the world”, “Nama would get credit flowing again” and “a remarkable recovery in the economy – order books are filling”. Bellicose messages on the need for unity and patriotic duty to bear pain are no substitute for clarity and sound judgement in times of crisis.

Instead of clarity demonstrating sound judgement and a sense of direction, strategic ambiguity continued with the Croke Park agreement and fiscal plans that underestimated the collapse in revenues and scale of cuts needed. There is no clarity on how to get people back to work save for the fuzzy logic of the smart economy and idealistic green economics. How will well healed citizen’s store of unproductive wealth be best used to fund recovery?

Clarity would induce a belief that there is certainty not about how much we will pay but how we will pay. Bond markets are looking for both good and successful leadership – that combination of clarity and sound judgement – in other words certainty. Ambiguity, fudge, bellicosity, obfuscation manifest in political cronyism and parochial clientelism belong to another time.

Certainty is best seen in clear, specific, attainable and realistic goals set within a policy framework that demonstrates sound judgement and sense of direction.

Our political leadership has failed to recognise that clarity, sound judgement, recognition of ordinary people, showing common sense and having a sense of direction are what people want to experience of their leaders. They also want to see humility, a genuine appreciation of their hardships.

Ambiguity may garner support from party members but it’s not the stuff of the authentic national leadership required. It seems we are experiencing the Peter principle which maintains that sometimes good leaders at one level are promoted upwards to their level of incompetence.

A version of this article appeared in the Irish Examiner, Business Section, Monday 27th September 2010.